Module 7: Transatlantic Geopolitics: the Future of NATO, Big Tech, and Global Competition
oiip Academy
Module 7: Transatlantic Geopolitics: the Future of NATO, Big Tech, and Global Competition
28. May 2026
This one-day hybrid module offers an in-depth, analytically grounded exploration of the evolving transatlantic relationship in an era of renewed great-power competition, technological disruption, and strategic uncertainty. Combining International Relations theory with historical and contemporary analysis, the course examines how the transatlantic alliance, centered on the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, has repeatedly adapted to shifting geopolitical contexts, from the Cold War to today’s complex security environment.
Participants will analyze converging and diverging U.S. and European interests across geopolitical, geoeconomic, technological, and ideological dimensions, with particular attention to alliance cohesion, burden-sharing, leadership, and competing threat perceptions. Moving beyond a purely state-centric lens, the module highlights the growing role of non-state actors, especially Big Tech, ideological networks, and domestic political forces, in shaping transatlantic debates and strategic outcomes.
Through an interactive, scenario-based exercise, participants will assess possible futures for transatlantic cooperation, identify key uncertainties and decision points, and develop strategic foresight skills for navigating alliance politics under conditions of risk and ambiguity. This course equips senior professionals with structured analytical tools to interpret change, anticipate friction, and make informed judgments about the future trajectory of transatlantic relations.
Course objectives
By the end of this module, participants will be able to:
- Recognize, drawing on alliance theory and the history of NATO, that transatlantic friction is structural rather than exceptional and that the space between full alignment and full rupture has always been where the alliance actually operates.
- Identify and assess areas of convergence and divergence between U.S. and European strategic interests across security, economic, technological, and ideological domains.
- Analyze the growing influence of non-state actors, particularly Big Tech, domestic political forces, and transnational networks, on transatlantic geopolitics and alliance dynamics.
- Apply actor-centered and scenario-based analytical frameworks to evaluate future pathways for transatlantic cooperation under conditions of uncertainty and risk.
- Strengthen strategic foresight skills relevant to alliance politics, technological competition, and global power transitions.
Full-Day Schedule
09:00 – 09:30 | Opening & Orientation
09:30 – 11:00 | NATO’s adaptation through changing geopolitical contexts
Key Takeaways: Theoretical introduction to alliance formation in International Relations scholarship and analytical overview of how the North Atlantic Treaty Organization has adapted its purpose, cohesion, and burden-sharing logic across distinct geopolitical eras, from Cold War containment to post-Cold War crisis management, to renewed great-power competition. Demonstrates that internal tensions, role renegotiation, and strategic rebalancing are recurring features rather than signs of terminal decline. Encourages critical reflection on how leadership, threat perception, and power asymmetries have continuously reshaped transatlantic relations, culminating in today’s debates over deterrence, “NATO 3.0”, China, and European responsibility.
Skills Taught: Developing historically informed strategic analysis by tracing continuity and change in alliance behavior. Strengthening the ability to extract policy-relevant lessons from past transatlantic disputes and adaptations to better assess current and future NATO challenges.
11:00 – 11:15 | Coffee Break
11:15 – 12:45 | Converging and Diverging Interests in Today’s Transatlantic Relationship
Key Takeaways: Systematic analysis of current transatlantic alignment and friction across geopolitical, geostrategic, geoeconomic, and ideological dimensions. Examines how differing threat perceptions, regional priorities, economic structures, and political cultures shape U.S. and European strategic interests at the global level, particularly regarding Russia, China, burden-sharing, international norms and institutions, as well as the use of power. Highlights that convergence and divergence often coexist, creating persistent tension rather than clear rupture or unity.
Skills Taught: Conducting comparative interest and threat analysis across regions and policy domains. Strengthening the ability to assess alliance cohesion and the resilience of the transatlantic bond under conditions of asymmetric power and capabilities, shifting priorities and differing geostrategic visions, and the evolution of the international system.
12:45 – 13:45 | Lunch
13:45 – 15:15 | Actor-Level Dynamics: Who Shapes Transatlantic Relations Today
Key Takeaways: Focused actor and agency analysis of the statal decision-maker and non-state players (Big Tech, ideological networks etc.) influencing transatlantic relations in the present and near future. Explores how political leaders, ideological movements, think tanks, economic elites, and technology actors shape alliance debates, constrain policy options, and introduce new fault lines within and across societies. Moves beyond state-centric analysis to show how domestic politics, networks, and private power increasingly affect alliance behavior.
Skills Taught: Applying actor-centered analytical frameworks to foreign and security policy. Developing the ability to map influence, incentives, and constraints across multiple levels of governance and power.
15:15 – 15:30 | Coffee Break
15:30 – 16:45 | Interactive Exercise: Scenarios for the Future of Transatlantic Relations
Key Takeaways: Scenario-based assessment of possible futures for transatlantic relations by integrating historical patterns (Segment 1), structural/systemic interest dynamics (Segment 2), and actor-level influences (Segment 3). Participants evaluate alternative pathways for the alliance, identify critical assumptions, and assess key conditions, signals, and decision points that could reshape NATO and transatlantic cooperation. Emphasizes uncertainty, trade-offs, and strategic choice rather than prediction.
Skills Taught: Scenario-building and strategic foresight under uncertainty. Enhancing the ability to identify early warning indicators, interpret political signals, and make informed judgments about alliance trajectories and policy options.
16:45 – 17:00 | Wrap-up session
Materials Provided
- Executive Handbook: Core Concepts in Geopolitics of East Asia, including relevant articles, policy analyses, and maps.
- REFLECTIONS – oiip Magazine
- Curated Source List: Intelligence, think tanks, media, and academic resources.