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Worrying about the bomb? – Nuclear proliferation fears & China’s foreign policy

Policy Brief by Thomas Eder and Tizian Metzner, December 2025
In cooperation the University for Continuing Education Krems – UWK

Unprecedented nuclear proliferation risks are emerging, as nuclear powers break the non-proliferation grand bargain by foregoing disarmament, Russia and North Korea threaten nuclear strikes against non-nuclear armed states during Moscow’s war of conquest, and US allies lose trust in extended deterrence. While China has been sympathetic to arguments about the need to mitigate regional security dilemmas for Iran and North Korea, it appears uninterested in the new regional security dilemmas emerging in Europe and East Asia.

This policy brief finds opinion polling, scholarly and political discourse in Poland, Germany, South Korea and Japan indicating rapid societal realignments on (additional) nuclear sharing or armament and on trust in US security guarantees. Meanwhile, an analysis of problem and solution awareness in Chinese scholarly debates and official statements from 2022 to 2025 suggests at best sleepwalking and at worst brinkmanship. The latter may be geared at offsetting perceived containment but could end up damaging China’s security interests. The EU and European governments should make the stakes and risks abundantly clear to Beijing. They should instead push for a different path, where both sides demonstrably contribute to a negotiated sustainable end to the Russia-Ukraine War that respects the security interests of non-nuclear armed Ukraine, successfully impress on allies and partners the need to cease nuclear threats against non-nuclear armed states, and engage in joint disarmament negotiations among the five UN Security Council veto powers.

To read more, download the Policy Brief HERE.