Module 3: Geopolitics and Political Risks in the Western Balkans
oiip Academy
Module 3: Geopolitics and Political Risks in the Western Balkans
11. December 2025
The third module of our "How to navigate Geopolitical Risks" modular Executive Education Course series provides participants with a structured introduction to political and societal dynamics, geopolitical risks and trends in the Western Balkans. In an interactive one-day hybrid format participants will explore how to map geopolitical dynamics, assess regional trends, and analyse the state of democracy and the EU-integration in the region. Through real-world case studies and interactive exercises the modul will apply bottom-up qualitative methods to assess political risks and develop early warning tools to better understand developments in this complex region in the middle of Europa with EU-membership aspirations.
Fees per module:
€ 350.- Professionals
€ 150.- Students
Course Objectives
By the end of this course, participants will:
- Introduce key concepts and methods of geopolitical analysis and learn to apply them in a real-world political context.
- Develop a nuanced understanding of the Western Balkans, its political specificities and geopolitical trends and risks.
- Explore regional actors, ideologies, the role of protests and perception in shaping narratives.
- Learn to identify and assess visible and hidden drivers of conflict and transformation.
- Build foundational skills in strategic mapping and trend interpretation
Full-Day Schedule
09:00 – 09:30 | Opening & Orientation
09:30 – 10:45 | Western Balkans between crisis and progress: An Introduction to Political and Social Dynamics
Key Takeaways:
Develop a deeper understanding of the Western Balkans region through a bottom-up lenses. Explore the region’s diversity, political, societal and economic systems, and key state and non-state actors. Reflect on how informality drives politics in the region and undermines democracy and EU-integration. Assess various layers of power, ranging from formal institutions, to clientelist power-circles, anti-government protests and grassroots movements.
Skills Taught: Contextual political and societal analysis of a complex and dynamic region. Critical examination of dominant power dynamics. Nuanced understanding of impact of various layers of powers on democracy.
10:45 – 11:00 | Coffee Break
11:00 – 12:30 | Mapping Geopolitical Power Games and Frictions in the Western Balkans
Key Takeaways: Understanding of the key factors that determine geopolitical dynamics and competition between the EU/the West, China, Russia and others geopolitical mide-size powers like Turkey in the region. Gain a strategic understanding of how complex global dynamics play out in a small European region with EU-membership prospects. Learn to interpret both visible and hidden drivers of political and social change. Build awareness of major global and regional trends shaping the future of the region.
Skills Taught: Western Balkans geopolitical literacy. The skill to read and analyze relevant (visible and invisible) trends in the Western Balkans. Applying map-based geopolitical analysis. Critical thinking and pattern recognition in volatile contexts.
12:30 – 13:15 | Lunch
13:15 – 14:45 | Moving beyond stereotypes to sound assessment of trends and risks in the Western Balkans
Key Takeaways: Explore usual stereotypes regarding the Balkans and learn from past cognitive biases and foresight failures. Understand where to look, which factors to take into account and how to look for relevant signals to better assess risks. Learn how to identify early signs of instability and emerging trends and how to position itself by taking a closer look on regional “hot-spots”.
Skills Taught: Critical evaluation of stereotyped and their impact on policy planning. Identifying and evaluating early warning signals and trend disruptions. Assessing diverse driving forces and creating preconditions for sounds and relevant assessment of risks. Building internal capabilities for geopolitical monitoring and foresight.
14:45 – 15:00 | Coffee Break
15:00 – 16:30 | Embedding In-Depth Regional Knowledge into Decision-Making – Interactive Case Study
Key Takeaways: Understand how in-depth regional knowledge can inform policy making and influence real-world decisions. Learn to apply political and policy awareness to sector-specific contexts based on a highly relevant case-study, which will be explored in an interactive Case Study situation. Explore the practical value of in-depth knowledge of the trends and dynamics in the Western Balkans for early warning and strategic decision-making.
Skills Taught: Translating geopolitical insight into actionable risk assessments and policy planing. Integrating political risks analysis into organizational processes.
16:00 – 17:00 | Closing Discussion & Action Mapping
Materials Provided
- Executive Handbook: Core Concepts in Geopolitics of the Western Balkans, including relevant articles, statistical overviews, policy analyses and maps.
- REFLECTIONS – oiip Magazine
- Curated Source List: Intelligence, think tanks, media, academia