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The Stabilitocracy Trap. How the EU enables Autocratization in its Neighborhood
Article by Cengiz Günay and Florian Bieber
Published in the Journal European Politics and Society (Taylor & Francis)
21 April 2026

ABSTRACT

The article examines how the EU’s foreign policy, centered on stability, has contributed to autocratization in the EU’s neighborhood. It explores this process on the cases of Serbia, Turkey, and Tunisia. The article thereby contributes to theorizing the concept of ‘stabilitocracy’. The term has been widely used to describe the relational dynamic between the EU’s engagement in the Western Balkans and the democratic decline in the region. By discussing the three case studies, the article seeks to identify key turning points when EU policy began endorsing or accepting autocratization trends. The article argues that these shifts result from the EU’s prioritization of stability over democratization. It distinguishes between two different security concerns that have supported autocratization: regional peace and stability (such as the absence of ethnonationalist conflict) vs. EU stability considerations (such as terrorism and migration). The cases represent different forms of relations with the EU. In Serbia accession negotiations are open, with Turkey the accession process is stalled, and Tunisia is a privileged partner with no accession prospects. The article argues that the EU’s prioritization of regional stability in the case of Serbia and the prevention of migration in the cases of Turkey and Tunisia has directly and indirectly supported autocratization and established stabilitocratic relations with the EU.